Since 1989, the losing team in the Superbowl is 5-17 in Week 1 (0-12 the last 12 yrs).
I normally share a TON of information with my clients. I know most handicappers don’t do that, but I’ve always done it and I don’t care if it’s not common practice. I try to keep my clients as informed as possible and I figure that the hours I spend research a single play, I might as well share some of that with them. Which is why I consider my clients to be the smartest, most well informed clients of any.
When I first started at this, posting freely on message boards and then in a free blog, I shared significant information. But once I started the service side of things, all of this information was reserved for clients. But because I received a bunch of positive feedback from clients on the info shared via a blog post and on air w/ Steve Duemig in Tampa, laying out a strategy I planned to use in wagers last weekend, I’ll break that trend.
In part to show what I do share, and also to say that I really don’t know why more services don’t share more info w/ clients. I think that 85-90% of it is primarily because they don’t do the required cutting edge research to come up with anything insightful that you can’t just find in a game preview at ESPN or Yahoo Sports. And 10-15% is that they think that sharing the info will prevent them from having the edges in the future.
I know there are some edges that I keep to myself, but I share a lot with clients, and my plays with writeups, sharing this info (I call them my “Personal Plays”) have hit:
So I find that a complete farce that you can’t share info or your win % will decrease. It’s 100% untrue. I’ve been doing it for years, and if it caused me to lose, I would not still, consistently, hit 58 / 59% on these plays with writeups the last 3 years!
Here is a glimpse of what I shared w/ clients for the Seattle @ Atlanta game last Sunday, which went 3-0 w/ Over 45, Atlanta Team Total Over 24 and using Seattle +10 in a teaser leg. But that is not the focus of this story.
As I do every week, I spend a significant amount of time breaking down the games. And I found an interesting angle on the totals for the games last weekend. So I wrote this blog post you will find below, and shared it with clients last Friday. I also appeared on WDAE in Tampa with Steve Duemig and laid out many of these reasons for the overs.
I never recommended people parlay all 4 overs, so I can’t take the credit for their aggressive decision to do that. But I heard on Twitter and via email from several people who did just that. One guy emailed me to tell me that put a $200 parlay on all 4 overs that paid out just under $2,500. (Side note – I asked him if, after that first Sunday game (Sea @ Atl) went over, if he hedged his bet w/ a bet on the Under for Hou @ NE. Because that’s a lot of profit riding on one outcome out of a $200 bet. He said “No”, as the line was up to 51 and he knew I liked the over and so did the market.)
Kudos to him, and to the rest of the guys who boldly took a similar strategy. I’m not taking credit for these great wins by these guys, but I do take credit for the hard work, effort and research that I put into what I share w/ my clients.
Here is the info I shared with my clients last Friday: CLICK HERE